Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -111 MOST -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -2.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -0.5 (+0.5) | 146.2 (-1.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -2.4 (-1.4) | 141.6 (+3.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -1.8 (-0.8) | 143.3 (+1.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -2.7 (-1.7) | 143.6 (+1.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | TLSA 98 – 74 MOST |
| Nov 16, 2024 | MOST 111 – 106 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#163) | 3.2 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#252) | 0.69 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#244) | 0.86 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#297) | 0.558 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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