Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -112 CIN -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -6.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -6.0 (-1.0) | 147.3 (+5.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -6.4 (-1.4) | 144.3 (+8.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -7.1 (-2.1) | 138.0 (+15.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -6.1 (-1.1) | 138.2 (+14.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | CIN 68 – 65 XAV |
| Dec 9, 2023 | XAV 84 – 79 CIN |
| Dec 10, 2022 | XAV 80 – 77 CIN |
| Dec 12, 2021 | XAV 83 – 63 CIN |
| Dec 6, 2020 | XAV 77 – 69 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#100) | 4.3 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#143) | 0.61 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#100) | 0.99 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#112) | 0.515 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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