Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | CIN +125 XAV -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -3.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -0.2 (-3.2) | 157.7 (-0.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -2.0 (-1.0) | 155.8 (+1.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.2 (-2.8) | 157.9 (-0.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -0.9 (-2.1) | 159.5 (-2.5) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | XAV 79 – 74 CIN |
| Dec 14, 2024 | CIN 68 – 65 XAV |
| Dec 9, 2023 | XAV 84 – 79 CIN |
| Dec 12, 2021 | XAV 83 – 63 CIN |
| Dec 6, 2020 | XAV 77 – 69 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#112) | 12.3 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#153) | 1.21 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#172) | 2.37 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#165) | 0.558 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 43.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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