Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -380 XAV +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -11.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -9.9 (-6.9) | 140.6 (-7.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -9.8 (-6.8) | 138.7 (-5.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -10.4 (-7.4) | 140.7 (-7.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -9.9 (-6.9) | 141.6 (-8.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | XAV 79 – 74 CIN |
| Dec 9, 2023 | XAV 84 – 79 CIN |
| Dec 10, 2022 | XAV 80 – 77 CIN |
| Dec 12, 2021 | XAV 83 – 63 CIN |
| Dec 6, 2020 | XAV 77 – 69 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#21) | 8.1 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#96) | 1.37 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#117) | 1.94 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#113) | 0.528 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 12.6% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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