Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | CIN -150 XAV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -1.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -0.9 (-8.9) | 135.7 (+10.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -0.1 (-8.1) | 137.5 (+8.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -2.1 (-10.1) | 136.9 (+9.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | XAV 79 – 74 CIN |
| Dec 14, 2024 | CIN 68 – 65 XAV |
| Dec 9, 2023 | XAV 84 – 79 CIN |
| Dec 10, 2022 | XAV 80 – 77 CIN |
| Dec 12, 2021 | XAV 83 – 63 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 13-8 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 6-7 |
| Home | 5-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#146) | 6.9 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#89) | 1.70 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#92) | 1.95 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#71) | 0.624 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 18.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 11.3% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 38.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 92.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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