Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -9.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -8.4 (+11.6) | 136.5 (+9.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -8.3 (+11.7) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -9.9 (+10.1) | 133.8 (+12.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -9.2 (+10.8) | 134.6 (+11.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | XAV 79 – 74 CIN |
| Dec 14, 2024 | CIN 68 – 65 XAV |
| Dec 9, 2023 | XAV 84 – 79 CIN |
| Dec 10, 2022 | XAV 80 – 77 CIN |
| Dec 6, 2020 | XAV 77 – 69 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-5 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#20) | 9.0 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#9) | 1.80 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.94 (#10) | 2.86 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#7) | 0.576 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 39.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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