Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -115 CIN -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -1.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.7 (+4.3) | 150.9 (+12.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -0.1 (+5.1) | 149.0 (+14.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -1.1 (+3.9) | 147.9 (+15.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -0.4 (+4.6) | 150.0 (+13.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | XAV 79 – 74 CIN |
| Dec 14, 2024 | CIN 68 – 65 XAV |
| Dec 10, 2022 | XAV 80 – 77 CIN |
| Dec 12, 2021 | XAV 83 – 63 CIN |
| Dec 6, 2020 | XAV 77 – 69 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-7 | 16-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#69) | 13.9 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#216) | 2.69 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#162) | 4.10 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#157) | 0.576 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 80.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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