Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -2800 SAM +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +26 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -23.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -17.2 (+8.8) | 150.3 (-10.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -20.0 (+6.0) | 147.0 (-7.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -21.6 (+4.4) | 147.8 (-7.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -22.0 (+4.0) | 149.2 (-9.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | VCU 75 – 65 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#39) | -6.3 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#65) | -1.02 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#48) | -1.78 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#79) | 0.448 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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