Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -258 PRIN +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | PRIN -0.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -0.0 (+5.0) | 132.2 (+8.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -0.4 (+5.4) | 132.5 (+8.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -0.0 (+5.0) | 133.1 (+7.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -0.7 (+4.3) | 131.7 (+9.3) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | LUC 73 – 68 PRIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-10 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#328) | -6.5 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#341) | -1.75 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.96 (#334) | -2.01 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#347) | 0.397 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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