Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO -170 MRSH +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -1.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -0.0 (+7.0) | 150.6 (+18.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -0.1 (+7.1) | 148.5 (+20.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -0.1 (+7.1) | 150.0 (+19.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -1.0 (+6.0) | 150.8 (+18.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | MRSH 79 – 70 OHIO |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MRSH 74 – 69 OHIO |
| Dec 3, 2022 | MRSH 83 – 69 OHIO |
| Dec 16, 2021 | OHIO 75 – 65 MRSH |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MRSH 81 – 67 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#250) | 1.3 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#275) | 1.13 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#253) | 1.36 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#219) | 0.564 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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