Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -7.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -7.2 (+2.8) | 149.2 (-9.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -7.3 (+2.7) | 149.7 (-9.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -7.2 (+2.8) | 149.9 (-9.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -8.5 (+1.5) | 152.6 (-12.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 81 MRSH |
| Dec 14, 2024 | MRSH 79 – 70 OHIO |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MRSH 74 – 69 OHIO |
| Dec 3, 2022 | MRSH 83 – 69 OHIO |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MRSH 81 – 67 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#86) | 2.5 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#49) | 0.13 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#49) | 0.54 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#64) | 0.491 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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