Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -20000 UNCA +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -22.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (-30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -16.3 (-4.3) | 151.6 (-13.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -15.5 (-3.5) | 153.0 (-15.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -18.8 (-6.8) | 154.6 (-16.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -18.3 (-6.3) | 152.0 (-14.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#30) | -3.3 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#101) | -0.58 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#71) | -0.64 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#92) | 0.405 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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