Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -105 DUKE -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +6 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -2.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.1 (-8.1) | 137.3 (-11.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -3.1 (-9.1) | 134.7 (-8.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -2.6 (-8.6) | 134.8 (-8.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.8 (-8.8) | 137.0 (-11.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2023 | DUKE 74 – 65 MSU |
| Mar 20, 2022 | DUKE 85 – 76 MSU |
| Dec 2, 2020 | MSU 75 – 69 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 17-1 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-4 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#15) | 25.5 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#5) | 3.98 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.83 (#5) | 6.08 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.709 (#4) | 0.646 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 59.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 42.4% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 40.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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