Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | DUKE -280 MSU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -6.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -5.9 (+3.1) | 146.7 (+14.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.4 (+4.6) | 149.2 (+11.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.7 (+4.3) | 149.8 (+11.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -6.3 (+2.7) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | DUKE 66 – 60 MSU |
| Nov 15, 2023 | DUKE 74 – 65 MSU |
| Dec 2, 2020 | MSU 75 – 69 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#11) | 11.3 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#15) | 2.52 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#10) | 2.96 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#17) | 0.594 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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