Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | DUKE -175 MSU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -11.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.6 (-11.6) | 146.5 (-2.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -6.2 (-12.2) | 147.0 (-3.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | DUKE 66 – 60 MSU |
| Nov 15, 2023 | DUKE 74 – 65 MSU |
| Mar 20, 2022 | DUKE 85 – 76 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#144) | 0.4 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#94) | 0.74 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#96) | 1.03 (#70) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.1% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 28.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 42.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 6.2% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.5% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 79.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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