Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | MEM +136 BAY -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -0.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -1.0 (+6.0) | 151.4 (-2.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -0.2 (+6.8) | 154.0 (-5.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -0.5 (+6.5) | 154.1 (-5.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -0.4 (+6.6) | 152.8 (-3.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#119) | 9.1 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#226) | 1.83 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#203) | 2.92 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#189) | 0.600 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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