Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | OAK -185 TOL +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +1 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | OAK -7.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -6.5 (-5.5) | 158.5 (+36.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -5.9 (-4.9) | 156.1 (+38.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -6.3 (-5.3) | 157.6 (+37.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -7.0 (-6.0) | 158.8 (+36.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | OAK 85 – 52 TOL |
| Dec 7, 2023 | TOL 69 – 68 OAK |
| Nov 17, 2022 | TOL 112 – 90 OAK |
| Nov 18, 2021 | OAK 80 – 59 TOL |
| Nov 26, 2020 | TOL 80 – 53 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#130) | 0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#90) | 0.45 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#83) | 0.47 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#51) | 0.530 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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