Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | OAK -145 TOL +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +21 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | OAK -16.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -6.4 (+14.6) | 133.3 (+5.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -5.3 (+15.7) | 133.8 (+5.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -9.8 (+11.2) | 132.1 (+6.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -8.6 (+12.4) | 131.6 (+7.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | OAK 98 – 97 TOL |
| Dec 1, 2024 | OAK 85 – 52 TOL |
| Dec 7, 2023 | TOL 69 – 68 OAK |
| Nov 17, 2022 | TOL 112 – 90 OAK |
| Nov 26, 2020 | TOL 80 – 53 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 12-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#46) | 1.0 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#10) | 1.03 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#12) | 1.16 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.800 (#15) | 0.438 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 20.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.37 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 31.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 10.5% |
Game Analysis
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