Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | OAK +400 TOL -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +27 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -9.5 (-17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -6.0 (-21.0) | 135.9 (-2.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -6.1 (-20.9) | 137.2 (-4.2) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | OAK 98 – 97 TOL |
| Dec 1, 2024 | OAK 85 – 52 TOL |
| Dec 7, 2023 | TOL 69 – 68 OAK |
| Nov 17, 2022 | TOL 112 – 90 OAK |
| Nov 18, 2021 | OAK 80 – 59 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-4 |
| Home | 5-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#77) | -0.7 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#59) | -1.06 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#62) | -1.26 (#65) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 23.2% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 22.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 28.3% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 6.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 69.7% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 2.8% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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