Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | OAK +100 TOL +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | OAK -5.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -5.3 (-6.3) | 148.1 (-11.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -2.2 (-3.2) | 147.9 (-10.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -5.5 (-6.5) | 147.8 (-10.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -5.7 (-6.7) | 149.4 (-12.4) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | OAK 98 – 97 TOL |
| Dec 1, 2024 | OAK 85 – 52 TOL |
| Nov 17, 2022 | TOL 112 – 90 OAK |
| Nov 18, 2021 | OAK 80 – 59 TOL |
| Nov 26, 2020 | TOL 80 – 53 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#96) | 4.8 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#104) | 0.29 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#142) | 0.06 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#63) | 0.509 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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