Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -900 OAK +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +22 | 202 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -32.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (+36.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -29.3 (-7.3) | 161.2 (+40.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -20.8 (+1.2) | 164.2 (+37.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -23.6 (-1.6) | 156.8 (+45.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -29.5 (-7.5) | 156.4 (+45.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | OAK 98 – 97 TOL |
| Dec 1, 2024 | OAK 85 – 52 TOL |
| Dec 7, 2023 | TOL 69 – 68 OAK |
| Nov 18, 2021 | OAK 80 – 59 TOL |
| Nov 26, 2020 | TOL 80 – 53 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-4 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#60) | -16.9 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#59) | -3.75 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#63) | -5.40 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.875 (#5) | 0.323 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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