Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -380 OAK +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +33 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -14.2 (-47.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -9.7 (-42.7) | 137.9 (-0.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -7.2 (-40.2) | 139.8 (-2.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -10.4 (-43.4) | 139.4 (-2.4) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -10.9 (-43.9) | 140.0 (-3.0) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | OAK 98 – 97 TOL |
| Dec 7, 2023 | TOL 69 – 68 OAK |
| Nov 17, 2022 | TOL 112 – 90 OAK |
| Nov 18, 2021 | OAK 80 – 59 TOL |
| Nov 26, 2020 | TOL 80 – 53 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#116) | -5.6 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#89) | -2.00 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#112) | -3.17 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#74) | 0.499 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 17.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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