Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -485 STBK +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +9 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -5.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -5.7 (+3.3) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -3.2 (+5.8) | 147.8 (+11.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -3.7 (+5.3) | 150.9 (+8.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -2.9 (+6.1) | 148.2 (+10.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2023 | DUQ 85 – 63 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#171) | -0.9 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#236) | 1.57 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#241) | 1.67 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#263) | 0.531 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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