Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -2800 FRES +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +24 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -19.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -21.5 (+2.5) | 155.9 (-15.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -17.2 (+6.8) | 148.3 (-8.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -18.3 (+5.7) | 150.0 (-10.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -18.9 (+5.1) | 152.5 (-12.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#24) | 1.2 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#42) | -0.26 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#41) | -0.09 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#41) | 0.464 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.