Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -305 UNCG +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +4 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -5.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -3.0 (-7.0) | 141.8 (+18.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -3.7 (-7.7) | 142.1 (+17.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -4.2 (-8.2) | 142.3 (+17.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -3.8 (-7.8) | 141.0 (+19.0) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#300) | -9.3 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#261) | -2.32 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#297) | -2.81 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#177) | 0.376 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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