Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UL +625 UNCW -950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -12.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -12.6 (+5.6) | 126.5 (+6.5) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -9.1 (+2.1) | 126.6 (+6.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -12.6 (+5.6) | 129.0 (+4.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -14.7 (+7.7) | 129.1 (+3.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-8 | 15-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#340) | 4.7 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#333) | 1.27 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.75 (#329) | 0.83 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#328) | 0.557 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 39.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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