Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -36.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +24 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -31.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -27.1 (-3.1) | 137.7 (+4.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -24.2 (-0.2) | 136.8 (+5.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -27.7 (-3.7) | 137.7 (+4.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -27.9 (-3.9) | 139.2 (+2.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2024 | CONN 81 – 46 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#9) | -6.4 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#6) | -1.03 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.16 (#7) | -1.75 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#7) | 0.450 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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