We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Schollmaier Arena · December 6, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TCU -6.5 Away covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money TCU -310 / ND +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total TCU win
Actual ND +2 172 Lost
Massey TCU -10.8 (-12.8)
Massey Totals 141.9 (+30.1)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 94%
Efficiency Plus ML TCU -8.8 (-10.8) 138.5 (+33.5) 79%
Baseline Tuned ML TCU -10.7 (-12.7) 138.4 (+33.6) 81%
Baseline ML TCU -10.4 (-12.4) 137.2 (+34.8) 80%
Baseline Plus ML TCU -10.4 (-12.4) 138.7 (+33.3) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TCU ND
Overall 23-12 13-18
Conference 11-7 4-14
Home 14-5 10-7
Away 5-5 2-9
Neutral 4-2 1-2
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 77.4 74.5
Avg Pts Against 72.1 75.3
Massey 12.9 (#35) 7.2 (#84)
Bradley-Terry 1.57 (#72) 0.92 (#111)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.09 (#45) 1.60 (#95)
RPI 0.529 (#135) 0.572 (#74)
Shooting & Four Factors TCU ND
FG% 44.5% 46.4%
3PT% 33.7% 34.7%
REB / G 35.7 37.1
OREB / G 11.9 11.1
AST / TO 1.33 1.03
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 53.8%
TOV% 16.5% 17.5%
ORB% 33.7% 33.7%
FT Rate 26.7% 26.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.6% 48.2%
Opp TOV% 23.6% 17.0%
DRB% 69.9% 73.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.4% 26.4%

Game Analysis

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