Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -310 ND +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +2 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -10.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -8.8 (-10.8) | 138.5 (+33.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -10.7 (-12.7) | 138.4 (+33.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -10.4 (-12.4) | 137.2 (+34.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -10.4 (-12.4) | 138.7 (+33.3) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#35) | 7.2 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#72) | 0.92 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#45) | 1.60 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#135) | 0.572 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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