Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +42 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -28.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -23.9 (+18.1) | 144.8 (-2.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -21.8 (+20.2) | 147.6 (-5.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -24.8 (+17.2) | 148.2 (-6.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -27.3 (+14.7) | 145.6 (-3.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 5-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 3-6 |
| Away | 11-3 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#117) | -19.9 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#156) | -2.68 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#142) | -4.58 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#122) | 0.375 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.0% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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