Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU -105 UVU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -5.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -2.8 (-13.8) | 141.0 (+12.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -5.7 (-16.7) | 142.3 (+10.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -6.0 (-17.0) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -6.5 (-17.5) | 142.1 (+10.9) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#61) | 9.1 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#81) | 0.29 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#70) | 1.06 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#89) | 0.540 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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