Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | TULN +235 AKR -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +17 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -13.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -11.4 (-5.6) | 164.8 (-5.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | AKR -10.4 (-6.6) | 161.9 (-2.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | AKR -7.1 (-9.9) | 163.8 (-4.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -9.4 (-7.6) | 167.7 (-8.7) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 17-1 |
| Home | 10-8 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#252) | 13.4 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#170) | 1.65 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#213) | 2.45 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#204) | 0.588 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 53.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 42.5% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 2.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 62.5% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 38.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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