Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -6.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -7.2 (+9.8) | 135.9 (+19.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -4.9 (+12.1) | 136.7 (+18.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -5.3 (+11.7) | 136.4 (+18.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -5.7 (+11.3) | 135.3 (+19.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-10 | 9-8 |
| Away | 1-12 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#231) | -6.0 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#286) | -1.54 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#281) | -1.83 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#201) | 0.366 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 59.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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