Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -180 IU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -3.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -5.4 (+3.6) | 151.6 (+13.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -3.9 (+5.1) | 149.1 (+15.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -1.1 (+7.9) | 148.3 (+16.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -3.5 (+5.5) | 153.8 (+11.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | LOU 89 – 61 IU |
| Nov 20, 2023 | IU 74 – 66 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 20.9 (#8) | 17.0 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#51) | 1.55 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#53) | 1.87 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#63) | 0.610 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 44.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 2.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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