Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +310 IU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -0.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -2.2 (-5.8) | 145.0 (-5.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -0.4 (-7.6) | 143.1 (-3.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -0.1 (-7.9) | 145.8 (-5.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -0.8 (-7.2) | 145.0 (-5.0) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | LOU 87 – 78 IU |
| Nov 27, 2024 | LOU 89 – 61 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-11 | 12-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#283) | -5.6 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#235) | -0.16 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#246) | -0.10 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#175) | 0.431 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 40.8% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 39.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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