Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | BC -2800 NHVN +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | BC -17.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -11.3 (-7.3) | 128.7 (+1.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -11.8 (-7.8) | 126.5 (+3.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -11.7 (-7.7) | 123.2 (+6.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -12.9 (-8.9) | 125.6 (+4.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#156) | -11.1 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#211) | -0.61 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#187) | -1.59 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#197) | 0.512 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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