We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Kirby Sports Center · December 6, 2025
Betting Lines
O/U 132.5 Over
Money LAF -170 / MERC +142
Model Predictions
Spread Total LAF win
Actual LAF +8 150 Won
Massey MERC -3.5 (+11.5)
Massey Totals 129.7 (+20.3)
Bradley-Terry 16%
Weighted B-T 6%
Baseline Plus ML MERC -1.9 (+9.9) 128.1 (+21.9) 42%
Model 4 ML MERC -2.2 (+10.2) 129.0 (+21.0) 41%
Model 3 ML MERC -2.3 (+10.3) 128.2 (+21.8) 33%
Baseline ML MERC -2.4 (+10.4) 128.1 (+21.9) 36%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2024 LAF 7773 MERC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LAF MERC
Overall 11-21 17-17
Conference 8-10 10-8
Home 6-10 12-3
Away 5-11 5-14
Neutral 0-0 0-0
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.1 68.2
Avg Pts Against 75.4 68.7
Massey -13.9 (#347) -5.4 (#257)
Bradley-Terry -3.51 (#354) -0.79 (#241)
W. Bradley-Terry -5.08 (#353) -1.12 (#240)
RPI 0.321 (#359) 0.459 (#237)
Shooting & Four Factors LAF MERC
FG% 39.8% 41.8%
3PT% 33.1% 28.6%
REB / G 31.9 31.4
OREB / G 9.9 9.4
AST / TO 0.93 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.7% 46.6%
TOV% 17.4% 18.0%
ORB% 26.4% 27.3%
FT Rate 25.0% 17.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.4% 47.6%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 19.2%
DRB% 64.9% 65.8%
Opp FT Rate 25.2% 40.4%

Game Analysis

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