Betting Lines
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -170 MERC +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -3.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -1.9 (+9.9) | 128.1 (+21.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MERC -2.2 (+10.2) | 129.0 (+21.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | MERC -2.3 (+10.3) | 128.2 (+21.8) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -2.4 (+10.4) | 128.1 (+21.9) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | LAF 77 – 73 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-10 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#347) | -5.4 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.51 (#354) | -0.79 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.08 (#353) | -1.12 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.321 (#359) | 0.459 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 40.4% |
Game Analysis
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