Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | MERC +135 LAF -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -0.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -0.3 (-3.7) | 133.9 (+16.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MERC -1.2 (-5.2) | 132.0 (+18.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | LAF -0.8 (-3.2) | 133.6 (+16.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.3 (-3.7) | 133.8 (+16.2) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | LAF 79 – 71 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#333) | -4.8 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#259) | -1.28 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#297) | -1.66 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#237) | 0.441 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 25.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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