Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -298 USA +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +26 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -8.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.7 (+20.3) | 141.5 (+14.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -7.8 (+18.2) | 141.1 (+14.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -7.0 (+19.0) | 143.0 (+13.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -6.5 (+19.5) | 140.8 (+15.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#109) | 0.9 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#116) | 2.34 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#148) | 2.50 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#146) | 0.577 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 12.2% |
Game Analysis
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