Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -700 UMES +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -12.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -11.1 (+6.9) | 131.2 (+6.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | AMER -10.5 (+7.5) | 133.6 (+4.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | AMER -10.0 (+8.0) | 133.2 (+4.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -10.5 (+7.5) | 129.9 (+8.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#230) | -11.9 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#233) | -1.49 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#221) | -2.83 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#210) | 0.443 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.1% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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