Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | FIU -258 JAX +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | FIU -5.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -3.6 (+19.4) | 140.4 (+12.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -3.0 (+20.0) | 140.3 (+12.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -3.7 (+19.3) | 140.4 (+12.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -4.1 (+18.9) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#236) | -5.3 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#256) | 0.52 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#246) | 0.52 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#147) | 0.513 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 60.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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