Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +31 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SC -23.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SC -21.0 (+10.0) | 144.7 (-11.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -18.4 (+12.6) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -19.4 (+11.6) | 144.4 (-11.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -19.1 (+11.9) | 145.3 (-12.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#97) | -12.9 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#172) | -2.50 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#158) | -3.18 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#182) | 0.362 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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