Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +190 LONG -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +4 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -0.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -1.3 (-5.3) | 144.8 (+19.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -0.2 (-4.2) | 147.3 (+16.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -0.7 (-4.7) | 150.3 (+13.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -1.8 (-5.8) | 150.8 (+13.2) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | LONG 84 – 66 MORG |
| Dec 3, 2023 | LONG 88 – 54 MORG |
| Dec 11, 2021 | LONG 94 – 55 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -14.0 (#348) | -9.8 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.99 (#359) | -1.59 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.46 (#356) | -1.24 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.274 (#365) | 0.418 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 37.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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