Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +39 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -15.4 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -10.7 (+28.3) | 138.4 (+10.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -12.6 (+26.4) | 141.6 (+7.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -13.1 (+25.9) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -13.2 (+25.8) | 139.0 (+10.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | LONG 84 – 80 MORG |
| Nov 9, 2024 | LONG 84 – 66 MORG |
| Dec 3, 2023 | LONG 88 – 54 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#163) | -10.0 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#260) | -1.58 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#259) | -2.47 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#308) | 0.415 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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