Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MORG +400 LONG -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +34 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -8.4 (-25.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -10.3 (-23.7) | 145.3 (-3.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -8.7 (-25.3) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -8.5 (-25.5) | 145.6 (-3.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -9.5 (-24.5) | 147.3 (-5.3) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | LONG 84 – 80 MORG |
| Nov 9, 2024 | LONG 84 – 66 MORG |
| Dec 11, 2021 | LONG 94 – 55 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#346) | 1.0 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.93 (#358) | 0.91 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.26 (#354) | 1.23 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.352 (#349) | 0.553 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 60.2% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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