Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -230 ISU +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +23 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -1.9 (-24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.9 (-24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.9 (-26.9) | 154.5 (-15.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.3 (-29.3) | 155.3 (-16.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.8 (-27.8) | 152.6 (-13.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.2 (-29.2) | 155.4 (-16.4) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#7) | 24.2 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.67 (#4) | 3.49 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.33 (#4) | 5.00 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.685 (#8) | 0.592 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 55.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 43.3% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 2.17 | 1.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 62.8% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 26.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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