Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -3600 USM +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -18.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -16.2 (+7.8) | 144.1 (+7.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -17.4 (+6.6) | 146.6 (+5.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -17.0 (+7.0) | 147.5 (+4.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -18.3 (+5.7) | 146.2 (+5.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#21) | 2.3 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#55) | 0.21 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#52) | 0.56 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#86) | 0.506 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.