Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | VT -180 GMU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | VT -3.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -1.4 (+9.6) | 146.5 (-11.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -3.4 (+7.6) | 144.8 (-9.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -3.2 (+7.8) | 145.9 (-10.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -2.3 (+8.7) | 147.4 (-12.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 17-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#73) | 10.3 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#58) | 3.09 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#66) | 4.27 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#32) | 0.634 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 37.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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