Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | BUCK -130 UMBC +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | BUCK -1.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -1.8 (-8.8) | 140.6 (-1.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | BUCK -1.7 (-8.7) | 139.2 (-0.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | BUCK -1.5 (-8.5) | 141.2 (-2.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -1.6 (-8.6) | 142.4 (-3.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-2 |
| Home | 6-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#303) | -5.6 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#301) | 0.01 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#298) | -0.39 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#276) | 0.465 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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