I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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66–30 on winners spread MAE 9.6 96 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gonzaga @ Kentucky -3.4 153.2 38% 94–59 ✓
South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman +15.6 154.2 92% 59–80 ✓
NJIT @ High Point +28.3 158.4 100% 72–89 ✓
South Alabama @ East Tennessee State +8.9 144.0 79% 65–91 ✓
Samford @ VCU +23.2 150.5 98% 57–83 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Iona +9.3 170.9 80% 89–68 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Lafayette -2.1 129.7 43% 71–79 ✗
Bryant @ Brown +6.9 126.6 74% 56–75 ✓
Niagara @ Siena +17.0 127.6 94% 54–83 ✓
Canisius @ Saint Peter's +6.6 135.7 73% 57–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist +20.2 132.9 97% 56–64 ✓
Fairfield @ Manhattan +0.1 170.4 50% 66–70 ✓
East Texas A&M @ UConn +30.0 139.7 100% 59–83 ✓
UAB @ Drake +6.8 147.5 73% 74–69 ✗
Cincinnati @ Xavier +7.4 142.6 75% 74–79 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese +24.7 149.9 99% 54–92 ✓
Notre Dame @ TCU +9.9 140.5 82% 87–85 ✗
San Diego @ San José State +6.3 141.9 72% 69–86 ✓
Iowa State @ Purdue +3.7 161.8 63% 81–58 ✗
Duke @ Michigan State -0.9 139.4 47% 66–60 ✓
Monmouth @ Georgia Tech +6.3 144.1 72% 67–79 ✓
New Haven @ Boston College +18.0 119.8 95% 63–67 ✓
Rhode Island @ Providence +4.9 165.4 67% 71–90 ✓
Dayton @ Virginia +9.2 156.2 80% 73–86 ✓
Southern Miss @ Miami +17.8 155.1 95% 64–88 ✓
UMBC @ Bucknell +1.7 144.4 56% 73–66 ✗
Old Dominion @ Richmond +14.4 156.0 91% 77–86 ✓
Utah Valley @ Bowling Green +6.0 145.6 71% 82–71 ✗
Maine @ Miami (OH) +17.8 139.3 95% 61–93 ✓
UNC Asheville @ NC State +21.8 166.4 98% 63–75 ✓
Drexel @ La Salle +5.1 132.8 68% 64–69 ✓
Western Michigan @ SIU Edwardsville +10.8 140.7 84% 83–73 ✗
Norfolk State @ James Madison +4.0 135.6 64% 67–68 ✓
Delaware @ Delaware State -5.3 130.7 31% 72–75 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +18.1 155.7 95% 88–84 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Gardner-Webb -9.6 163.9 19% 88–84 ✓
Morehead State @ Presbyterian +6.8 126.4 73% 72–80 ✓
Western Carolina @ South Carolina Upstate +10.8 153.1 84% 67–78 ✓
Ohio State @ Northwestern +4.5 152.0 66% 86–82 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ West Georgia +4.5 153.2 66% 87–59 ✗
Stetson @ South Carolina +22.8 149.3 98% 51–82 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida International +6.5 145.6 72% 65–88 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ American University +13.4 130.7 89% 60–78 ✓
Marquette @ Wisconsin +16.2 164.6 93% 76–96 ✓
Coppin State @ Liberty +28.3 152.6 99% 50–92 ✓
Boise State @ Butler +9.6 146.1 81% 77–68 ✗
Youngstown State @ IU Indianapolis -2.5 180.2 41% 78–55 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +2.0 171.7 57% 71–59 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne -1.8 161.3 43% 77–79 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Buffalo +2.8 146.3 60% 77–69 ✗
Stony Brook @ Duquesne +5.9 161.0 71% 75–84 ✓
Holy Cross @ Fordham +6.9 127.1 74% 70–69 ✗
Harvard @ Furman +6.0 139.4 71% 69–79 ✓
Indiana @ Louisville +3.3 159.0 62% 78–87 ✓
Princeton @ Loyola Chicago -1.5 138.1 45% 68–73 ✗
Georgia State @ Kennesaw State +16.8 163.7 94% 69–92 ✓
Idaho @ South Dakota State +5.8 141.7 70% 84–81 ✗
Toledo @ Oakland +7.6 172.2 75% 97–98 ✓
Missouri State @ Tulsa +23.9 143.5 99% 74–98 ✓
Bellarmine @ Murray State +19.2 167.8 96% 68–81 ✓
George Mason @ Virginia Tech +1.9 150.4 57% 62–73 ✓
Rutgers @ Michigan +36.5 148.0 100% 60–101 ✓
Fresno State @ Arkansas +18.7 154.4 96% 58–82 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ North Carolina Central -2.5 145.1 41% 69–54 ✓
Elon @ Wofford +3.8 171.9 63% 73–52 ✗
Marshall @ Ohio -1.7 161.3 44% 81–88 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Massachusetts +15.4 158.8 92% 60–80 ✓
Maryland @ Iowa +19.6 143.2 96% 64–83 ✓
Dartmouth @ Wyoming +26.6 157.8 99% 80–93 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Louisiana -12.6 125.7 13% 70–63 ✓
New Mexico State @ Abilene Christian -4.6 129.7 34% 69–77 ✗
Evansville @ Western Kentucky +23.3 152.5 98% 79–80 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Carolina +5.7 150.8 70% 82–78 ✗
Le Moyne @ Binghamton -2.6 156.7 41% 78–63 ✓
Akron @ Tulane -12.9 175.5 12% 88–71 ✓
Seton Hall @ Kansas State +2.8 148.2 60% 78–67 ✗
Longwood @ Morgan State +0.5 162.5 52% 84–80 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls +0.9 150.6 53% 67–74 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Temple +6.1 159.8 71% 70–69 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Chattanooga -0.1 152.9 50% 74–70 ✓
Baylor @ Memphis +0.4 162.6 52% 71–78 ✓
Omaha @ Portland State +13.9 159.0 90% 60–55 ✗
Vermont @ Pepperdine -0.6 155.1 48% 65–56 ✓
Southern Utah @ Oregon State +15.2 148.0 92% 70–81 ✓
Kansas City @ Eastern Washington +12.4 158.0 87% 66–90 ✓
Sam Houston @ Texas Southern -16.5 173.2 7% 82–70 ✓
Colorado @ Colorado State +6.0 161.9 71% 86–91 ✓
Pacific @ California +7.9 143.1 76% 61–67 ✓
Long Island University @ Lehigh +0.6 153.6 52% 87–82 ✗
UAlbany @ Columbia +20.7 143.4 97% 65–93 ✓
Washington @ USC +9.7 163.9 81% 84–76 ✗
Oregon @ UCLA +14.3 143.2 90% 63–74 ✓
Denver @ Idaho State +11.5 148.8 85% 79–93 ✓
Wake Forest @ West Virginia -1.1 139.7 46% 75–66 ✓
William & Mary @ George Washington +10.7 172.9 83% 86–99 ✓
Houston Christian @ New Orleans +10.9 144.7 84% 85–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.