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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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50–13 on winners spread MAE 11.0 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Boston University @ New Hampshire -2.9 136.2 39% 82–88 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Lamar +6.6 130.5 72% 57–49 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah +1.5 148.6 55% 85–91 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly +9.0 161.1 79% 88–84 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Villanova +19.5 149.4 96% 63–90 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Grand Canyon -9.0 151.1 21% 84–78 ✓
Florida State @ Houston +10.6 144.1 83% 67–82 ✓
Illinois @ Tennessee -1.2 155.6 46% 75–62 ✓
Ole Miss @ St. John's +16.8 158.0 94% 58–63 ✓
Montana @ North Dakota -3.8 153.8 36% 79–75 ✓
Northern Arizona @ North Dakota State +12.4 142.5 87% 68–69 ✓
Montana State @ Oral Roberts -7.0 151.4 26% 68–72 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Bradley +15.3 149.8 92% 55–84 ✓
Wichita State @ Northern Iowa +3.6 126.0 63% 74–69 ✗
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee +1.0 161.7 54% 72–74 ✓
Chicago State @ Illinois State +22.9 147.7 98% 53–95 ✓
South Dakota @ Northern Colorado +16.6 164.8 93% 87–89 ✓
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois -5.0 148.5 32% 82–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ DePaul +17.7 156.4 95% 72–76 ✓
Santa Clara @ New Mexico -6.0 153.2 29% 71–98 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +12.9 155.6 88% 84–109 ✓
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State -11.6 154.8 15% 80–74 ✓
Arkansas State @ Little Rock -9.9 152.2 18% 90–78 ✓
Auburn @ Arizona +10.7 167.6 83% 68–97 ✓
Oklahoma @ Arizona State -5.9 159.0 29% 70–86 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Irvine +15.2 143.8 92% 71–85 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +16.1 163.8 93% 59–69 ✓
Air Force @ Navy +13.1 135.6 88% 56–61 ✓
Missouri @ Kansas +4.8 149.6 67% 60–80 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Indiana State +11.9 150.1 86% 55–77 ✓
Weber State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +3.0 156.9 61% 65–88 ✓
Fairfield @ Merrimack +1.5 146.7 56% 63–74 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Northeastern +3.0 144.6 61% 56–73 ✓
UTSA @ Alabama +34.9 163.1 100% 55–97 ✓
Austin Peay @ UT Rio Grande Valley +1.5 146.6 55% 50–63 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Davidson -5.4 143.6 31% 70–61 ✓
Iona @ Sacred Heart -1.3 174.4 45% 81–69 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gulf Coast -2.9 170.9 40% 81–76 ✓
Utah State @ Charlotte -6.1 143.8 29% 79–53 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +25.9 148.1 99% 58–72 ✓
UIC @ Yale +18.9 154.1 96% 66–80 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +5.3 136.0 69% 43–71 ✓
Canisius @ Siena +21.3 126.6 97% 52–74 ✓
Manhattan @ Marist +16.0 137.8 93% 68–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Radford +11.9 155.5 86% 56–89 ✓
LSU @ Texas Tech -4.0 156.8 36% 58–82 ✗
UL Monroe @ Stephen F. Austin +23.8 145.6 98% 76–96 ✓
Alabama State @ UT Martin +11.6 145.9 85% 64–74 ✓
Central Michigan @ Saint Louis +29.4 156.5 100% 65–107 ✓
San Francisco @ Mississippi State +0.5 153.5 52% 65–62 ✗
Towson @ UCF +9.5 145.3 81% 61–86 ✓
UNLV @ Stanford +15.4 175.6 92% 75–74 ✗
Hofstra @ Pittsburgh +2.1 135.9 58% 80–73 ✗
Belmont @ Middle Tennessee +1.8 153.0 56% 83–62 ✗
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +10.4 141.7 83% 76–68 ✗
Georgetown @ North Carolina +15.4 154.3 92% 61–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Lipscomb +10.7 139.8 84% 58–92 ✓
Nevada @ Washington State -2.0 159.9 43% 78–64 ✓
Creighton @ Nebraska +7.5 151.2 75% 50–71 ✓
Green Bay @ Wright State +10.3 143.8 83% 58–86 ✓
Texas A&M @ SMU +0.8 167.1 53% 80–93 ✓
TCU @ North Texas -7.7 137.0 24% 65–55 ✓
Central Arkansas @ East Texas A&M +3.8 143.2 64% 68–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.